XRP has entered the new week with a technical setup that is beginning to tilt in favor of bulls, even though the price action is stuck inside a range. A bullish divergence has appeared on the daily chart, hinting that downside momentum may be fading and that a rebound could be close.
However, XRP’s price structure is fragile, and technical analysis has revealed a level that could either support a recovery attempt or lead to another round of selling pressure.
Bullish Divergence Shows Selling Pressure Is Losing Strength
The foundation of the bullish case is the daily divergence now visible on the daily candlestick chart. XRP has been holding inside a narrow range near the $1.34 to $1.50 range, but momentum is no longer falling at the same pace as the price.
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When price makes a lower low, but momentum refuses to follow, as the RSI is clearly showing on the XRP daily chart right now, it tells traders that the selling pressure behind each leg lower is weakening. The Bears are still in control on paper, but they’re running out of fuel.
This is exactly what unfolded in the February lows. Price crashed to the $1.13 range in a capitulation flush; the RSI fell into oversold territory below 25. However, the price action is now beginning to stabilize and consolidate between roughly $1.34 and $1.40, but this hasn’t led to the creation of higher highs.
However, RSI shows momentum and is beginning to quietly recover to build a higher low. That divergence is now confirmed on the daily timeframe with the start of the new week.
Why $1.34 Is The Level Bulls Cannot Afford To Lose
Despite the improving short-term outlook, the bullish thesis has a very clear line in the sand. According to technical analysis from a crypto analyst known as “Guy on the Earth,” anything below $1.34 would invalidate the setup in the short term. That makes it the level traders are likely to watch most closely at the start of the week. At the time of writing, XRP is trading at $1.36, just a little higher than the important $1.34 level.
This support matters because it has effectively become the price floor of the current range. XRP has already spent several sessions trading just above it, and this shows that buyers are still willing to defend that zone. According to the analyst, a clean break below $1.34 would open the door to another leg lower or see a capitulation wick closing back above $1.34.
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Signals are one thing; confirmation is another, and for XRP, confirmation only comes at $1.50. The chart above shows the upper boundary of the current range around $1.50, and that is the level bulls need to break if XRP is going to shift from recovery talk to a real trend reversal.
Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com