The Pi Coin price is struggling to recover after its recent breakout attempt collapsed. The token is trading near $0.16 after failing to hold gains above $0.19, a level it reached during a bullish flag breakout attempt on February 17. That breakout had projected a rally of nearly 60%, but the move quickly stalled.
Since then, Pi has drifted lower, raising concerns that the broader downtrend may still be intact. Yet beneath this weakness, one technical signal suggests a bounce attempt may still be developing. The bigger question is whether retail buyers alone can sustain it.
Hidden Bullish Divergence Keeps Bounce Hope Alive
Pi Network’s recent decline has formed an interesting structure on the chart.
Between February 13 and February 22, the price seems to be forming a higher low, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) formed a lower low.
The RSI is a momentum indicator that measures buying and selling strength. This pattern, called a hidden bullish divergence, often signals a temporary bounce within a broader downtrend.
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This explains why Pi Coin has managed to stabilize near $0.16 despite its failed breakout. However, this signal remains extremely weak. For the divergence to validate, PI ($0.16 · Live) must hold above the $0.16 support level ($0.162 to be exact). A drop below this level would weaken the hidden bullish structure momentarily and expose the price to deeper losses.
But momentum alone is not enough. The real test is whether participation supports the rebound.
Social Interest And Money Flow Collapse
While the RSI shows early rebound potential, other indicators show weakening confidence.
Social volume, which tracks how often Pi Coin is discussed across social platforms, has collapsed sharply. It dropped from a monthly high score of 18 on February 16 to just 3 on February 22. This represents an 83% decline in attention.
This decline is significant because the previous breakout attempt was driven by rising social interest. With fewer participants talking about Pi, the demand needed to sustain rallies is fading.
Social Volume: SantimentThe last time social volume dropped near similar levels was February 9 (monthly low at the time), when the score fell to 6. Within the next two days, Pi Network’s price collapsed to its all-time low near $0.13.
With social interest now even lower at 3, this fading attention could again weaken price support and increase downside risk.
Capital flow data tells a similar story. The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), which tracks large investor buying and selling, has been falling steadily since February 18, along with the price. It also remains below zero, showing that money continues to flow out of Pi Network rather than into it.
Big Money Flow Weakens: TradingViewThis lack of capital support helps explain why the 60% breakout failed and why the recovery remains weak. Without stronger inflows, rebounds tend to stall even when the RSI signals a rebound.
Retail Buying Is Rising, But May Not Be Enough
One group, however, is still showing signs of accumulation.
On-Balance Volume (OBV), which tracks cumulative buying and selling pressure and is often used as a proxy for retail activity, has been rising since February 16, even as the price declined. This suggests retail investors are buying the dip.
Pi Coin And Retail: TradingViewThis retail participation is likely helping the Pi Coin price hold above its critical support levels for now. But retail alone rarely drives sustained recoveries. Without support from larger investors and stronger capital inflows, price rebounds often fail.
This leaves Pi Network in a vulnerable position. If PI holds above $0.16, the bounce attempt could continue toward $0.18 and potentially $0.20, one of the most critical levels.
Pi Coin Price Analysis: TradingViewHowever, if support breaks below $0.16, the failed breakout may trigger a deeper decline toward $0.14 and eventually its all-time low near $0.13. For now, Pi Network appears caught between fading institutional interest and persistent retail buying.
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