By Francisco Rodrigues (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)
Bitcoin
Most assets saw sharp downturns over the period as the conflict in Iran escalated, damaging vital energy infrastructure. A hotter-than-expected February U.S. PPI print compounded the effect.
Traditional havens, including gold and silver, also tumbled while Brent crude surged above $110 a barrel owing to supply disruptions caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
The Fed didn’t help. While the U.S. central bank held interest rates steady on Wednesday, as expected, its tone turned hawkish. The conflict’s effects have damped rate-cut expectations, and, in fact, the perceived odds of rate increases surge from 8% to top 24% on prediction markets.
André Dragosch, head of research for Europe at Bitwise, told CoinDesk the bitcoin sits at the intersection of two powerful and opposing forces, and that the balance may already be tipping in the token’s favour.
On one side, rising inflation expectations are supportive, Dragosch said. Bitcoin bull runs have historically aligned with expansions in the ISM Manufacturing Index, which rose sharply this year, and rising inflation expectations.
“This combination of rising economic activity and inflation expectations is probably one of the key reasons why bitcoin recently managed to outperform other traditional assets like gold and US equities,” he said. “Bitcoin is also generally less interest rate-sensitive than gold, which is why it wasn’t so much affected by the rise in bond yields. “
On the other hand, tighter financial conditions are a headwind. Bitcoin, however, may have been acting as the canary in what Dragosch called the “macro coal mine.”
“Bitcoin appears to have already priced in much of this tightening, exhibiting a record “macro discount” and front-running the recent deterioration in forward-looking indicators,” Dragosch said.
Looking ahead, a key catalyst will remain improving financial conditions. That means the conflict in the Middle East ending and the Strait of Hormuz reopening, even as developments in the crypto space show growing adoption. Stay alert!
Read more: For analysis of today’s activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today
What to Watch
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead“.
- Crypto
- Macro
- March 20, 8:30 a.m.: Canada PPI YoY (Prev. 5.4%); MoM (Prev. 2.7%)
- Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
- March 20: BitFuFu (FUFU), pre-market, $0.01
Token Events
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead“.
- Governance votes & calls
- Lightchain AI DAO is voting on a temporary 90-day team authority proposal, which grants the core team short-term operational authority to make day-to-day and strategic decisions. Voting ends March 22.
- Unlocks
- March 20: LayerZero (ZRO) to unlock 5.64% of its circulating supply worth $52.45 million.
- Token Launches
Conferences
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead“.
Market Movements
- BTC is up 0.29% from 4 p.m. ET Thursday at $70,608.19 (24hrs: +0.69%)
- ETH is down 0.55% at $2,148.07 (24hrs: -1.14%)
- CoinDesk 20 is up 0.34% at 2,044.85 (24hrs: unchanged)
- Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 2 bps at 2.76%
- BTC funding rate is at -0.0020% (-2.1703% annualized) on Binance
- DXY is down 0.38% at 99.70
- Gold futures are up 1.58% at $4,673.60
- Silver futures are up 1.75% at $72.14
- Nikkei 225 closed down 3.38% at 53,372.53
- Hang Seng closed down 0.88% at 25,277.32
- FTSE 100 is down 2.16% at 10,082.61
- Euro Stoxx 50 is down 1.71% at 5,638.54
- DJIA closed on Thursday down 0.44% at 46,021.43
- S&P 500 closed down 0.27% at 6,606.49
- Nasdaq Composite closed down 0.28% at 22,090.69
- S&P/TSX Composite closed down 1.42% at 31,854.98
- S&P 40 Latin America closed up 0.22% at 3,466.80
- U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate is up 2 bps at 4.28%
- E-mini S&P 500 futures are down 0.52% at 6,625.50
- E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are down 0.68% at 24,412.50
- E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index are down 0.43% at 46,140.00
Bitcoin Stats
- BTC Dominance: 58.90% (0.18%)
- Ether-bitcoin ratio: 0.03043 (-0.49%)
- Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 925 EH/s
- Hashprice (spot): $30.68
- Total fees: 2.95 BTC / $206,875
- CME Futures Open Interest: 117,190 BTC
- BTC priced in gold: 15.2 oz.
- BTC vs gold market cap: 4.72%
Technical Analysis
- BTC/SPX may be showing signs of bottoming out – with RSI bouncing off from oversold levels and the line maintaining its trend.
- The ratio is currently below the 50-week exponential moving average, which implies more range-bound performance until we see a breakout above the average.
Crypto Equities
- Coinbase Global (COIN): closed on Thursday at $202.91 (+0.31%), -0.45% at $201.99 in pre-market
- Circle Internet Group (CRCL): closed at $128.33 (-3.40%), -2.20% at $125.51
- Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $21.05 (-2.46%), -0.71% at $20.90
- MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $9.22 (+3.36%), -0.33% at $9.19
- Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $14.14 (+0.28%), +0.28% at $14.18
- Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $16.48 (+0.80%)
- CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $9.83 (-0.51%), -0.31% at $9.80
- Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $7.73 (-4.57%)
- CoinShares Bitcoin Mining ETF (WGMI): closed at $39.10 (+0.00%)
- Bullish (BLSH): closed at $39.60 (+3.45%), -0.98% at $39.21
Crypto Treasury Companies
- Strategy (MSTR): closed at $138.24 (-1.65%), +0.54% at $138.99
- Strive Asset Management (ASST): closed at $10.26 (+2.24%), +0.49% at $10.31
- SharpLink (SBET): closed at $7.68 (-2.41%), +1.04% at $7.76
- Upexi (UPXI): closed at $1.07 (+0.00%), +1.87% at $1.09
- Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $1.17 (-0.85%)
ETF Flows
Spot BTC ETFs
- Daily net flows: -$90.2 million
- Cumulative net flows: $56.26 billion
- Total BTC holdings ~1.29 million
Spot ETH ETFs
- Daily net flows: -$136.4 million
- Cumulative net flows: $11.8 billion
- Total ETH holdings ~5.76 million
Source: Farside Investors