Why Arthur Hayes is bullish: In an interview with CoinDesk’s Jennifer Sanasie on MArkets Outlook, Hayes said Hyperliquid has separated itself from competing perpetual futures exchanges with real usage rather than incentive-driven volume.
- Hayes told Sanasie he sold his firm’s HYPE position around $50–$55 ahead of expected token unlock pressure but turned bullish again after the team chose not to sell most of its monthly token allocations.
- He said Hyperliquid still generates close to a $1 billion annualized revenue run rate based on 30-day fee data.
- The platform’s HIP-3 permissionless listing system has expanded trading beyond crypto into assets like oil or equity indices.
What’s driving activity: Hayes said traders are increasingly using Hyperliquid to access markets unavailable through traditional platforms.
- Retail traders can trade assets like oil or Nasdaq proxies 24/7 on-chain using stablecoins and crypto wallets.
- Hayes said leverage of 10x–20x is often available compared with the 2x–3x many retail investors receive on traditional brokerage platforms.
- Weekend geopolitical events, such as sudden conflict announcements, have pushed traders to use Hyperliquid while traditional markets are closed.
Why Hyperliquid stands out: Hayes argued Hyperliquid’s liquidity and trading metrics show more genuine market activity than rival decentralized exchanges.
- Many competing platforms rely on wash trading or token incentive programs to inflate activity, Hayes said.
- He evaluates exchanges using the ratio of trading volume to open interest, which he said helps identify genuine trading demand.
- Hayes said Hyperliquid has the lowest ratio among major perpetual DEXs, indicating more “real” trading.
- The platform also offers the lowest slippage for large bitcoin perpetual trades ranging from $100,000 to $10 million, he said.
What could derail the thesis: Hayes said rising hype and stronger competition could signal a potential exit point.
- He said he would reconsider his position if HYPE’s price-to-earnings ratio rises sharply and market sentiment becomes overwhelmingly bullish.
- Another risk is whether competitors offering lower fees can erode Hyperliquid’s roughly 70% share of perpetual DEX revenue.
- Hayes said maintaining strong revenue and continued restraint in team token selling are key to sustaining the bull case.
Beyond HYPE: Hayes also highlighted privacy-focused crypto projects as a developing narrative.
- He said Zcash could benefit from growing concerns about blockchain surveillance and AI-powered transaction analysis.
- Hayes cited Zcash’s cryptographic upgrades and privacy model as reasons he favors it over alternatives like Monero.
Bitcoin outlook: Hayes maintained his aggressive forecast for Bitcoin.
- He reiterated that Bitcoin could reach $250,000 by the end of the year despite missing earlier targets.