The leading cryptocurrency has weathered a “stress test” amid geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. However, on-chain metrics indicate a lack of bullish momentum for a mid-term breakout, according to Glassnode.
An accumulation cluster is forming in the $62k–$72k range. However, its intensity is modest relative to prior phases that preceded sustained expansions.
Conviction is building, but the foundation for a mid-term breakout remains thin so far.
📉 https://t.co/ztF5eAyola https://t.co/QKryhvZaho pic.twitter.com/g3XhYKPLst
— glassnode (@glassnode) March 13, 2026
Experts have observed accumulation in the $62,000-$72,000 range. However, the intensity of buying is less than in phases that historically preceded sustained rallies.
They identified an increase in the share of short-term holders in profit as a preliminary condition for a sustainable recovery. The metric has fallen below 50%, indicating that most recent buyers are at a loss.
A hallmark of bear markets: STH Supply in Profit falling below 50%, meaning the majority of recent buyers are underwater.
Demand-side risk appetite tends to remain suppressed until this flips back above 50%.
Watch this level as a precondition for any sustained recovery.
📉… pic.twitter.com/CY9Rl2rDeC
— glassnode (@glassnode) March 13, 2026
Analysts emphasized that demand and risk appetite will remain “suppressed” until the figure returns above 50%.
Hidden Risks and Resistance
CryptoQuant analyst Sunny Mom highlighted a hidden threat to the market. She noted that the greatest concern currently is the behavior of investors holding bitcoin for six to 12 months.
Is BTC ($72,386.00 · Live) Bottom In? Not Quite.
“We are at a ‘Value Bottom’ for long-term DCA, but a ‘Structural Bottom’ has yet to form. Expect volatility between $60k–$70k.” – By @chich1217 pic.twitter.com/eBwJbuSUkP
— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) March 13, 2026
Their average entry price is concentrated around $100,000—significantly higher than current levels. These market participants are currently facing unrealized losses. As long as their cost curves are upward, they pose significant resistance to growth, the analyst explained.
Digital gold has also not yet reached a bottom, as indicated by MVRV values near 1.2. Historically, this is an attractive zone for “smart money” averaging. However, the “true” cycle lows are usually accompanied by a drop in the ratio below one. The market has not yet reached “maximum pain.”
A sustainable bottom forms when the share of coins unmoved for more than two years exceeds 20% of realized capitalization. Currently, it barely reaches 15%.
“Structural support from this group remains weak. This indicates the fragility of the market bottom until long-term holders regain their dominance,” explained Sunny Mom.
Two Scenarios
The analyst outlined two paths for forming the cycle’s low. The first is a “black swan”: a sharp collapse triggers a cascade of forced liquidations and “washes out” fresh capital that entered at peaks. Sunny Mom described this as a quick and painful path to a “solid” bottom, which could take one or two months.
The second scenario is “great boredom.” Institutional investors continue to hold positions, and bitcoin gets stuck in the $60,000-80,000 range. During this time, “new money” ages to the status of long-term holders. In these conditions, recovery could be delayed until the end of 2026 or even early 2027.
In the near term, the expert expects volatility in the $60,000-70,000 corridor.
At the time of writing, the leading cryptocurrency is trading around $72,300. Its price has jumped 2.7% in the last 24 hours.
Hourly chart of BTC/USDT ($1.00 · Live) on Binance. Source: TradingView. Earlier, options traders bet on bitcoin rising to $80,000 by early summer.