Actor Michael B. Jordan overtook Timothée Chalamet on prediction market platform Polymarket as most likely to win “Best Actor” at the 2026 Oscars awards show, with his odds rising by over 4x since March 1.
Last week, the “Sinners” star won the best actor award at the Actor Awards, formerly known as the Screen Actors Guild Awards, or SAG.
A week out from the Academy Awards, Polymarket traders place Jordan’s odds of winning the award at about 47%, while Chalamet is a close second at 45%, Leonardo DiCaprio is at 5%, Wagner Moura has 4% odds and Ethan Hawke has only 1% odds. Chalamet was in the lead until Saturday.
Jordan was nominated for an Oscar for his role as twin brothers Smoke and Stack Moore in the 2025 vampire horror film “Sinners.” Chalamet was nominated for his role in “Marty Supreme,” a fictional drama film about a table tennis player.
The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences awards show will air on March 15, and the prediction market for Oscars’ Best Actor has over $5.6 million in trading volume on Polymarket at the time of publication.
Prediction market platforms came to the fore during the 2024 US elections and continue to gain momentum, with crypto exchanges integrating prediction markets into their platforms and traditional financial companies also eyeing prediction market-style products.
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Polymarket plans US app rollout this year, but regulatory hurdles remain
Polymarket opened up its application for select, waitlisted US users in December 2025, with a full rollout of a US-regulated platform expected later in 2026.
However, prediction market platforms continue to face scrutiny from some state-level regulators in the United States, who argue that they have the authority to regulate event contracts.
In February 2026, Polymarket filed suit against the Commonwealth of Massachusetts, arguing that the state-level gambling regulator has no authority over prediction markets and that this authority rests solely with the federal Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
The lawsuit could set a legal precedent on whether prediction markets are regulated solely at the federal level or if oversight is shared between federal and state authorities.
Polymarket and Kalshi are also facing increased regulatory scrutiny in the state of Nevada after a federal judge rejected arguments that the Commodity Exchange Act (CEA) and CFTC prevent state regulators from exercising oversight over prediction markets.
Both platforms are reportedly exploring new fundraising rounds that could value the companies at around $20 billion each, roughly double their most recent valuations.
Each has held preliminary discussions with potential investors about raising fresh capital at the elevated valuation, the Wall Street Journal reported on Friday, citing people familiar with the matter. The report noted that the negotiations remain at an early stage and may not result in deals or secure the targeted valuation.
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