Crypto markets snapped back hard on Sunday after spending Saturday pricing in what looked like the start of a prolonged regional war.
Bitcoin climbed to $66,843, up 5.2% over the past 24 hours, recovering most of the losses from Saturday’s slide below $64,000 after U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran.
The bounce accelerated after Iranian state TV confirmed the death of Supreme Leader Khamenei, which markets interpreted as raising the odds of a shorter conflict.
Solana led the recovery among majors, surging 10.8% to $86.42. Ether rose 7.5% to reclaim $1,994, putting it back within touching distance of $2,000 for the first time since Thursday. Cardano added 6.7%, dogecoin gained 6.5%, XRP rose 5.6%, and BNB climbed 4.8%.
The weekly picture is messier, however. Bitcoin is still down 1.6% over seven days, XRP has lost 2%, and dogecoin is off 2.5%. Solana and ether are the only majors that have clawed back into the green on the week, up 1.7% and 1.1% respectively.
The weekend volatility has been enormous but net movement has been small, which captures the broader story of a market whipsawing on global headlines without actually going anywhere.
The bounce looks convincing on a 24-hour chart but fragile in context. Saturday’s sell-off happened on thin weekend liquidity. Sunday’s rally happened on the same thin liquidity, just in the opposite direction.
The real test arrives in hours when equity futures, oil, and bond markets reopen and institutional capital has its first chance to react to Saturday’s events.
The Polymarket’s ceasefire contract gives a 78% chance of a U.S.-Iran ceasefire by April 30 and 61% by March 31, as reported earlier Sunday.
If that pricing holds once traditional markets digest the weekend, the bounce has legs. However, if oil spikes and equities gap lower on the open, crypto’s Sunday optimism could get faded the same way Wednesday’s push to $70,000 was.