Ethereum’s price crash leaves ETH stuck in a firm downtrend, with negative flows and weak momentum making a sustained reclaim of $3,000 in February increasingly unlikely.
Summary
- Ethereum price trades near $2,111 after a steep drawdown, with four‑hour MACD and RSI signaling only a corrective bounce inside a broader downtrend.
- Daily CMF, DMI, and ADX confirm sustained capital outflows and strong trend strength, keeping February recovery odds toward $3,000 low.
- Analyst Leshka still sees a 3x–4x six‑month upside on fractal and supply‑squeeze signals, but only once the current de‑risking phase and drawdown fully exhaust.
Ethereum’s (ETH) price and latest selloff has left investors nursing losses and staring down a February defined more by damage control than euphoria. The core message from market structure and on‑chain signals is blunt: a swift return to $3,000 is, for now, fantasy rather than base case.
Structure of the crash
Ethereum rebounded toward $2,300 after one of its sharpest drawdowns of the year, but the move “looks corrective, not a bullish reversal,” as the original analysis put it. At press time on Feb. 5, ETH changes hands near $2,111, with a 24‑hour range roughly between $2,080 and $2,287 and turnover close to $47.4B.
On the four‑hour chart, MACD histogram bars have flipped green for the first time since late January, yet the 26‑period EMA still sits above the 12‑period EMA, keeping the broader bearish trend intact. RSI hovers in the mid‑30s, “well below the neutral 50 mark,” underscoring that sellers remain in control despite the bounce.
Why $3,000 is unlikely in February
Daily structure is the problem. CMF remains firmly negative, signaling that “capital is still flowing out on balance,” while the negative DMI line continues to hold above the positive one. ADX near 39 shows this is not random noise but a well‑defined downtrend, with ETH still printing textbook lower highs and lower lows.
Fibonacci retracement levels place price just above the zero Fib line — a fragile “final buffer for short‑term relief moves.” Unless bulls can reclaim $2,450 with expanding volume and then break above the $2,818 area, a clean push through the psychological $3,000 mark this month looks unlikely.
Longer‑term upside case
Not everyone is throwing in the towel. Crypto analyst Leshka still argues that “ETH will 3x‑4x in the next six months. I can’t believe it myself, but the pattern screams about it,” pointing back to a prior cycle move from $56 to $1,151 and to what he calls a brewing supply squeeze on centralized exchanges. That more explosive scenario, however, implicitly assumes the current drawdown completes and accumulation returns, not that February alone resolves the damage.
This parabolic move comes as digital assets continue to trade as the purest expression of macro risk appetite. Bitcoin (BTC) trades around $70,370, with a 24‑hour drop near 7.9% and a market cap above $1.4T. Ethereum (ETH) sits close to $2,111, with about $47.4B in 24‑hour turnover and 24‑hour lows near $2,080. Solana (SOL) changes hands around $90–$91, down roughly 6–7% on the day, with market value near $51.5B.
For now, the market is trading Ethereum as a high‑beta expression of a broader de‑risking phase. As analysts have warned in related coverage of the current correction, from Bitcoin’s break below key support to Ether’s “ghost window” setup, rallies are likely to be sold until flows and trend indicators flip decisively back in favor of the bulls.