Can Bitcoin Still Lock in its Best Monthly Gains Since April 2025?

Bitcoin (BTC) rebounded above $76,000 at Thursday’s Wall Street open while traders stayed bearish on the short-term BTC price outlook.

Key points:

• Bitcoin’s Coinbase Premium Index flips negative as analysis warned the January breakdown could repeat.
• BTC price action is already at risk of repeating a bear flag breakdown to new macro lows.
• The April monthly close should still offer Bitcoin’s best gains in a year.

Bitcoin Coinbase Premium risks repeating bearish history

Data from TradingView showed 1% daily gains after initial pressure over high oil prices and a hawkish US Federal Reserve meeting the day prior.

BTC/USD one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

With US stocks treading water, Bitcoin market participants saw little reason to flip bullish on shorter time frames. 

Among the concerns was the Coinbase Premium — the difference in price between Coinbase’s BTC/USD and Binance’s BTC/USDT pairs.

“Bitcoin’s ripping higher… but the selling on Coinbase is getting DEEPER by the minute,” X user Against Wall Street wrote. 

A negative Coinbase Premium implies insufficient demand for Bitcoin during US trading hours, with price action normally suffering as a result. 

In January, a relief bounce on BTC/USD combined with a steepening negative Premium, and the pair ultimately broke to new macro lows.

Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Index. Source: CryptoQuant

“We’ve seen this exact movie before, and spoiler alert: everybody already knows how it ends,” Against Wall Street continued, referring to January’s events.

As Cointelegraph reported, then, as now, price formed a so-called “bear flag” construction on the daily chart — a warning to buyers that a breakdown could occur.

BTC teases best monthly price gains since April 2025

Other traders also felt the need for caution, with trader CJ seeing little sign of a long-term floor already being in place.

Related: Bitcoin, stocks risk ‘months’ of losses as Kevin Warsh Becomes Fed chair

A chart uploaded to X on the day included a potential target of $65,000.

“I think even if we are putting in a bottom here, we *at least* see something like this,” they commented. 

“This would be my bullish outlook. I’m ultimately waiting on April close to refine.”

BTC/USD one-day chart. Source: CJ/X

The monthly close was set to offer 11.6% gains for April at the time of writing — still Bitcoin’s best performance in a year, per data from CoinGlass.

BTC/USD monthly returns (screenshot). Source: CoinGlass

This article is produced in accordance with Cointelegraph’s Editorial Policy and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice or recommendations. All investments and trades carry risk; readers are encouraged to conduct independent research.